Almost 2 million people a year could die from antibiotic resistant superbugs by 2050, scientists say

Researchers say ‘now is the time to act’ to protect against threat posed by resistance to drugs used to treat infection

Almost two million people a year could die from antibiotic-resistant superbugs by 2050, scientists have warned.
A first-of-its-kind analysis of deaths from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) found more than one million people died every year from these infections between 1990 and 2021.
Calculations predict that 1.91 million people a year will die from these infections by 2050.
Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria evolve resilience to drugs used to treat them and become impervious to antibiotics.
Scientists led by the University of Washington calculate that more than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections between now and 2050.
Researchers say “now is the time to act” to protect people across the world from the threat posed by resistance to drugs that are used to treat infection.
The worldwide analysis by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance project found AMR deaths among children aged under five fell by 50 per cent since 1990.
However, they increased by more than 80 per cent among people aged 70 and older.
The findings, published in The Lancet, highlight the need for measures that combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimising inappropriate antibiotic use and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecast for 2050.
Dr Mohsen Naghavi, the author of the study and team leader of the AMR research team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, said: “Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.
“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing.”
Dr Kevin Ikuta, of the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and affiliate professor at IHME, said the fall in deaths from sepsis and AMR among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement, but the threat to older people will only increase as populations age.
“Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR,” he said.
Estimates for the study were produced for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infectious conditions (including meningitis, bloodstream infections and other infections) among people of all ages in 204 countries and territories.
The estimates were based on a wide range of sources, including hospital data, death records and antibiotic use data.
Dr Stein Emil Vollset, of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, the study author and affiliate professor at IHME, said: “By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some eight million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor.
“To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics and guidance on how to use them most effectively.”
Dr Colin Brown, the deputy director at UKHSA responsible for AMR, said: “This report is another reminder that antibiotic resistance is a threat to all of us – not just in the future but now.
“If more infections continue to become resistant to treatment, lives will continue to be lost and we need universal action to turn this tide.
“We can all help by only taking antibiotics if you have been told to do so by a healthcare professional.
“Do not save some for later or share them with friends and family. Treat antibiotics with respect and they will be there to help us all in the future.”
The World Health Organisation has described AMR as “one of the top global public health and development threats”.
The research suggests that future deaths from AMR will be highest in south Asia, where a total of 11.8 million deaths directly linked to AMR are forecast between 2025 and 2050.